Research
Peer-reviewed publications, working papers, and work in progress.
Peer-Reviewed Publications
AI-Powered Skill Classification: Mapping Technology Intensity in the German Labor Market
with Sabrina Genz and Florian Lehmer
Fiscal Studies, forthcoming
Frontier Technology Adopters and the Aggregate Decline of Routine Jobs
with Melanie Arntz, Sabrina Genz, Florian Lehmer, and Ulrich Zierahn-Weilage
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, forthcoming
Racing With or Against the Machine? Evidence on the Role of Trade in Europe
with Anna Salomons and Ulrich Zierahn
Journal of the European Economic Association, 20(2), 869–906, 2022
When the Minimum Wage Really Bites Hard: The Negative Spillover Effect on High-Skilled Workers
with Ulrich Zierahn
Journal of Public Economics, 206, 104582, 2022
Demographic Change on Regional Labour Markets
with Michael Böhm, Pamela Qendrai, and Christian Siegel
Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 37(1), 113–131, 2021
Revisiting the Risk of Automation
with Melanie Arntz and Ulrich Zierahn
Economics Letters, 159, 157–160, 2017
Demographic Ageing and the Polarization of Regions — An Exploratory Space-Time Analysis
with Roberto Patuelli
Environment and Planning A, 47(5), 1192–1210, 2015
Can Regional Employment Disparities Explain the Allocation of Human Capital Across Space?
with Melanie Arntz and Florian Lehmer
Regional Studies, 48(10), 1719–1738, 2014
The Minimum Wage Affects Them All: Evidence on Employment Spillovers in the Roofing Sector
with Bodo Aretz and Melanie Arntz
German Economic Review, 14(3), 282–315, 2013
The Minimum Wage in the Roofing Sector: Impact on Employment, Worker Protection and Competition
with Bodo Aretz, Melanie Arntz, and Christian Rammer
Journal for Labour Market Research, 45(3), 233–256, 2012
Working Papers
Mapping Artificial Intelligence: Evidence from Firm-Level Web Data in Europe R&R Research Policy
with Julio Garbers
IZA Discussion Paper No. 18434, 2026
Abstract
We develop a firm-level AI adoption indicator for Europe by applying large language models
to more than three million firm websites between 2016 and 2024. The share of AI-active firms
grew from 1% to 12%, with the ecosystem shifting from specialized AI providers to broader
adopters. Foundational data skills form the necessary base for adoption, while specialized
AI skills act as strong complements.
Firm-level Technology Adoption in Times of Crisis R&R European Economic Review
with Melanie Arntz, Michael Böhm, Georg Graetz, Florian Lehmer, and Cäcilia Lipowski
ZEW Discussion Paper No. 24-057, 2024
Abstract
We examine technology investments before and during the Covid-19 pandemic in German firms.
Investment in frontier technologies declined sharply, equivalent to losing 1.4 years of
pre-pandemic investment activity. Post-pandemic investments increasingly facilitated
remote work capabilities.
Minimum Wages and the Rise in Solo Self-Employment R&R ILR Review
with Ulrich Zierahn-Weilage and Angelika Ganserer
IZA Discussion Paper No. 15283
Abstract
We document that the adoption of industry-specific minimum wages doubled solo
self-employment shares in high-impact areas, suggesting that workers were involuntarily
pushed into more precarious alternative work arrangements with poorer social security.
Impact of Firm-Level Technology Adoption on Workers under revision
with Sabrina Genz and Florian Lehmer
IZA Discussion Paper No. 14626
Abstract
Using linked employer-employee data, we study how firm-level technology adoption affects
worker outcomes. Technology adoption increases employment stability and wages; effects vary
by occupation and adoption strategy, with augmenting technologies generating sizable gains
compared with limited benefits from substitutive technologies.
Evolving Skill Demands in the Age of AI: Evidence from Europe under revision
with Najada Feimi, Christina Gathmann, and David Marguerit
2026
Abstract
Analyzing 31 million online job ads from four European countries, we document significant
growth in the demand for AI, data, and prediction skills in exposed occupations, but a
decline in social skills since 2018, alongside greater skill specialization.
Work in Progress
The Impact of Artificial Intelligence Adoption on Employment and Productivity in European Firms
with Julio Garbers, Christina Gathmann, and David Marguerit
Technological Change and Labor Market Transformation: A Historical Analysis from Newspaper Job Advertisements in Luxembourg
with Christina Gathmann and Salvatore Di Salvo
Do Minimum Wages Encourage Automation? Evidence from Sectoral Wage Floors in Germany
with Christina Gathmann and Boris Ivanov
Policy Briefs and Other Writing (Selection)
How AI Reshapes Skill Demand in European Firms
with Najada Feimi, Christina Gathmann, and David Marguerit
LISER Policy Brief No. 2026-11, 2026
AI Adoption by Firms in Luxembourg and Neighbouring Countries: Which Firms Adopt AI, When and For What
with Christina Gathmann and Julio Garbers
LISER Policy Brief No. 2026-03, 2026
Digitale Transformation auf Sparflamme: Weniger 4.0-Investitionen in der Pandemie
with Melanie Arntz, Michael Böhm, Georg Graetz, Florian Lehmer, Cäcilia Lipowski, and Britta Matthes
ZEW Policy Brief No. 24-14, 2024
Digitalisierung in der Covid-19-Pandemie: Corona hat den digitalen Graben zwischen den Betrieben vertieft
with Melanie Arntz, Michael Böhm, Georg Graetz, Jan Moritz Johanning, Florian Lehmer, Cäcilia Lipowski, Britta Matthes, and Nick Niers
IAB-Kurzbericht 4, 2023
Digitalisierung und die Zukunft der Arbeit
with Melanie Arntz and Ulrich Zierahn
Wirtschaftsdienst, 100(13), 41–47, 2020
Digitization and the Future of Work: Macroeconomic Consequences
with Melanie Arntz and Ulrich Zierahn
in: Handbook of Labor, Human Resources and Population Economics, Springer, 2019
No Need for Automation Angst but Automation Policies
with Daniel Arnold, Melanie Arntz, Susanne Steffes, and Ulrich Zierahn
in: Neufeind, O’Reilly, Ranft (eds.), Work in the Digital Age: Challenges of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, Rowman & Littlefield, 2018
Betriebe und Arbeitswelt 4.0: Mit Investitionen in die Digitalisierung steigt auch die Weiterbildung
with Simon Janssen, Ute Leber, Melanie Arntz, and Ulrich Zierahn
IAB-Kurzbericht 26/2018
Arbeitswelt 4.0: Wohlstandszuwachs oder Ungleichheit und Arbeitsplatzverlust — was bringt die Digitalisierung?
with Oliver Stettes, Melanie Arntz, Ulrich Zierahn, Katharina Dengler, Daniel Veit, Werner Eichhorst, and Ulf Rinne
ifo Schnelldienst, 7, 3–18, 2017
Arbeitswelt 4.0 — Stand der Digitalisierung in Deutschland: Dienstleister haben die Nase vorn
with Melanie Arntz, Florian Lehmer, Britta Matthes, and Ulrich Zierahn
IAB-Kurzbericht 22/2016
The Risk of Automation for Jobs in OECD Countries: A Comparative Analysis
Melanie Arntz, Terry Gregory, and Ulrich Zierahn
OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers No. 189, 2016